2024 is going to “feel like a lot of tailwinds coming together”‘, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.
2024 is going to “feel like a lot of tailwinds coming together”‘, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.
Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley translates the sometimes complex world of economics, helping investors identify early indicators of market-moving trends.
The global economy is set to slow substantially in 2023, according to a new report from the World Bank. The lagged and current effects of monetary tightening, as well as more restrictive credit conditions, are expected to weigh on activity in the second half of the year, with weakness persisting into 2024. Excluding China, growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is set to decline markedly, with the outlook weakest in countries with elevated fiscal and financial vulnerabilities. The resurgence of recent banking sector turmoil represents a serious risk. Widespread financial stress could have especially severe economic consequences.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecast for 2023 amid colliding pressures from the war in Ukraine, high energy and food prices, inflation and sharply higher interest rates, warning that conditions could worsen significantly next year.
“For many people, 2023 will feel like a recession,” said IMF Research Development Director Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.
The latest World Economic Outlook forecasts show that a third of the world economy will likely contract by next year, marking a sobering start to the first in-person IMF and World Bank annual meetings in three years. The IMF said global GDP growth next year will slow to 2.7 per cent, compared to a 2.9 per cent forecast in July, as higher interest rates slow the U.S. economy, Europe struggles with spiking gas prices and China contends with continued COVID-19 lockdowns and a weakening property sector.